Nintendo has unveiled what many analysts are describing as a cautious sales forecast for its upcoming Switch 2 console, citing persistent uncertainty surrounding international tariffs. During its latest financial results briefing, the company projected it will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million games in the current fiscal year, which concludes on March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is set to launch globally on June 5.
In its official statement, Nintendo noted that this forecast assumes the current U.S. tariff rates—which went into effect on April 10—remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any adjustments to those rates could impact its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely to respond effectively to changes in market conditions,” the company added.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit target as “conservative,” suggesting that Nintendo is likely factoring in potential risks such as tariff fluctuations, pricing sensitivity, and production challenges—even with strong pre-order momentum. In a follow-up comment, Ahmad pointed out that while Nintendo could potentially revise its forecast upward if tariffs are reduced or removed, several logistical ripple effects are already underway, complicating the console’s launch environment. He also reiterated concerns about the looming possibility of increased tariffs.
It's worth noting that achieving 15 million units in its first year would place the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches in history. That figure would surpass the original Switch’s first-year sales of 14.87 million units—a benchmark that helped define its early success.
The demand for the Switch 2 appears to be immense. After an initial delay attributed to tariff-related complications, pre-orders officially launched on April 24, with the console price locked at $449.99. As expected, demand surged almost immediately. Additionally, Nintendo issued a heads-up to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, cautioning that delivery by the release date isn’t guaranteed due to exceptionally high order volumes.
For more details, check out IGN’s Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide for the latest updates and purchasing tips.
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