Star Wars Game Sales Plummet Prediction

Ubisoft's anticipated Star Wars Outlaws launch hasn't delivered the expected sales boost, causing a dip in the company's share price last week. The game's performance has fallen short of projections, despite positive critical reception.

Ubisoft's Financial Hopes Tied to Star Wars Outlaws and Assassin's Creed Shadows

Stock Price Slump Continues

Ubisoft positioned Star Wars Outlaws, along with the upcoming Assassin's Creed Shadows (AC Shadows), as key drivers for its financial recovery. However, disappointing sales figures for Outlaws, released on August 30th, resulted in consecutive share price drops on September 3rd and 4th, a 5.1% decrease on Monday and a further 2.4% decline on Tuesday morning. This drop marked the lowest share price since 2015, adding to a significant year-to-date decline of over 30%.

Ubisoft's Q1 2024-25 report emphasized the importance of these two titles in reshaping the company's financial outlook. While the report noted a 15% increase in console and PC session days, largely attributed to Games-as-a-Service, and a 7% year-on-year rise in monthly active users (MAUs) to 38 million, the underperformance of Star Wars Outlaws casts a shadow over these positive metrics.

Sales for Star Wars Outlaws have been described as underwhelming. J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven, cited by Reuters, noted that the game "struggled to meet our sales expectations despite positive critical reviews," revising his sales projection downward from 7.5 million units to 5.5 million units through March 2025.

The contrasting reception between critics and players is notable. While critics generally praised the game, player reviews on Metacritic average a mere 4.5 out of 10. Conversely, Game8 awarded Star Wars Outlaws a 90/100 rating, calling it "an exceptional game that does justice to the Star Wars franchise." For a detailed analysis of Star Wars Outlaws, please see our full review [link to review].